The Implications of Aging Populations
As the world continues to evolve, one significant shift we're witnessing is the aging of global populations. This demographic change is the result of declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy. Such a shift in the age distribution, known as population aging, has started in high-income countries but is now being experienced most drastically in low- and middle-income countries.
By 2050, the world's population of people aged 60 years and older is expected to double to 2.1 billion. Moreover, the number of persons aged 80 years or older is projected to triple between 2020 and 2050, reaching 426 million. These changes are neither linear nor consistent, and they are only loosely associated with a person's age in years.
While longer life spans and declining birth rates are considered major achievements in modern science and healthcare, they will have a significant impact on future generations. For instance, the working-age population is expected to see a 10% decrease globally by 2060. In countries like Greece, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, the decrease will be even more drastic, falling by 35% or more.
There are many social and economic risks associated with an aging population. One of the most evident signs of an aging population is the strain on pension systems. Although the average retirement age is gradually increasing in many countries, people are saving insufficiently for their increased life span, resulting in an estimated $400 trillion deficit by 2050.
Other challenges include rising healthcare costs, economic slowdown, and the emergence of complex health states commonly called geriatric syndromes. These syndromes, often the consequence of multiple underlying factors, include frailty, urinary incontinence, falls, delirium, and pressure ulcers. As people age, they are more likely to experience several conditions at the same time.
Despite these challenges, a longer life brings with it opportunities, not only for older people and their families, but also for societies as a whole. It is crucial for all countries to ensure that their health and social systems are ready to make the most of this demographic shift.
Sources:
[1] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health
[2] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/aging-global-population-problem/
[3] https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/population-ageing